Why online betting…

Unfortunately people lose lots of money through all forms of gambling, as it generally is taking a 100% risk.

However this tip I am about to discuss is relatively low risk and is used by many people globally. Since 2015, I have averaged around $250 profit per week through online betting. 

Note: While the techniques discussed in this post provide a reduced risk, they do take discipline. If you are someone that has had problems with gambling addiction in the past it is not recommended that you apply these techniques. 

Two techniques…

There is two main betting techniques that are applied, risk free and value betting respectively. Risk free as the name suggests is where you are guaranteed a positive or neutral outcome without any loss of funds. While Value betting may result in a small loss (for example $10 – $15 per NRL  or AFL game) the winnings on offer are quite substantial and could only be achieved through a much higher stake with regular betting. At the core of both approaches is betting on both teams to win the match.

Both techniques take advantage of the promotions the online bookies have on offer. In terms of the NRL a classic example is ‘If your team loses by 8 points or less, your stake will be refunded up to $50 in bonus bets‘. The key word here is ‘bonus bets’ which are discussed below. 

More on risk free betting…

As I mentioned earlier risk free betting is where no matter what outcome you will not lose your stake (your money). Such opportunities are of course rare because bookies factor in a ‘commission’ into their betting odds. For example if you have two teams are evenly matched, bookies will not offer you odds of 2.0 for either team because they will not make any money this way. Instead you are likely to be offered between 1.90-1.95 (depending on the bookie). 

Having said this there are occasions where the market (odds) will move (odds may rise or decrease based on bets received) but a bookie will not adjust their odds fast or accurately enough. Taking advantage of such opportunities is generally called arbitrage betting, and allows you to make around 1 – 3% profit risk free. However such opportunities are extremely rare in Australia (much more common in the UK where the bookie numbers are much higher) and therefore is not something I pursue. 

However the risk free betting technique I will discuss is essentially the same but takes advantages of the promotional odds bookies may provide. Ladbrokes is very good for this with their odds boost promotion where for selected matches, the odds of teams and horses can be boosted/increased. In addition, Ladbrokes have offered 2.0 odds for the Friday night favourite in the NRL and AFL (Note: I am unsure whether this promo will continue this year noting the odds boost promotion already in place). I have used this promotion as an example to show you how risk free betting works.

Example

Ladbrokes boosts the odds of  the Canterbury Bulldogs from 1.30 to 2.0 with the Tigers (the outsiders) paying 3.0. with a max bet of $20.

If you put $20 on Bulldogs at 2.0 the return is $40.
If you then put $13.30 on Tigers at 3.0 the return is $40.

Therefore no matter who wins, you still win $40. Your total profit is $40 minus your total outlay ($20 + $13) = $6.67. While this isn’t a lot of money it adds up.

If you wanted to you could adjust the outlay so that if the tigers win you win your money back but if the bulldogs win, you come away with more profit.

So $20 on Bulldogs at 2.0 = $40

And $10 on Tigers at 3.0 = $30

Outlay = $30

If bulldogs win = $10 profit

If tigers win = $0

Note: Never bet on both outcomes (i.e. both teams) at the same bookie or at an affiliated bookie (i.e. Luxbet and TAB are affiliated, Ladbrokes and bookmaker are affiliated).

Other bookies that provide boosted odds include:

More on value betting…

Value betting is where there is a small loss but for a considerable gain. You could essentially be staking 1/10th of what you normally would to win the same amount.

Value betting also relies on promotions, but those that provide a bonus bet or real cash refund. They are particularly prevalent during the first half of the NRL and AFL seasons where bookies would have promos such as:

  • Score the first try but lose, money back up to $100
  • Lead at half time but lose, money back up to $100
  • Lose by 8 points or less, bonus bet refund up to $50
  • Lead at the 60th minute but go on to lose, bonus bet refund up to $100

Like risk free betting, you are betting on both teams to win and therefore after factoring in bookie commission, you generally stand to lose $5 – $15 dollars per match depending on how many bets you make and the odds on offer.

Example

Using the example promos listed above you place bets on the Melbourne Storm v St George Illawarra Dragons match as follows:

  • $100 on Storm at Ladbrokes (Score the first try but lose – money back up to $100) at odds of 1.75
  • $100 on Storm at Sportsbet (Lead at half time but lose, money back up to $100) at odds of 1.70

Stake: $200 Potential return: $345

  • $50 on Dragons at Crownbet (lose by 8 points or less, bonus bet refund up to $50) at odds of 2.27
  • $100 on Dragons at BettingClub (lead at the 60th minute but go on to lose, bonus bet refund up to $100) at odds of 2.30

Stake: $150 Potential return: $343.50

Total Stake: $350

Respective returns: Storm win = loss of $5. Dragons win = Loss of $6.50

Example outcome: Storm scored the first try and lead at half time, however they went on to lose the match. End return: The 2 $100 stakes are returned, therefore once the $5 loss is considered the total profit for the match is $195. Which is a significant return at the risk of a maximum $6.50. 

Generally I use a simple spreadsheet to do these bets, so that I can manipulate how much I am betting on each team to ensure my maximum loss is limited. There are apps (betting calculators) out there that can also assist. I recommend this calculator for iOS users. 

Note: Unfortunately when the favourite is at very short odds (1.30 and below) it is generally impossible to do value betting on such matches. Ideal matches are where the two teams are close to evenly matched. 

Bonus bets vs money back…

Firstly, money back is the preferred return because its your money to use as you please, however this is not the case with bonus bets. Key points to consider with regards to bonus bets:

  • Bonus bets are not real money and cannot be withdrawn, they must be turned over (i.e. a bet must be placed)
  • After placing a bonus bet, if the selected team wins, the winnings are generally subject to turn over requirements. A classic example is that the winnings from a bonus bet bet must be turn over at odds of 1.50 or greater before you can withdraw them.
  • When you use your bonus bet to make a bet, the stake (i.e. the bonus bet) is kept by the bookie. This is the case for 95% of bookies. Bet365 is a notable exception to this. 

Sounds too easy…

While applying the techniques are easy there is one key issue. Bookies are businesses that are out to make money and will therefore ban you from promos if you are considered to be using them in a non-recreational way. In other words if you purely bet with a bookie on promotional bets only you will inevitably get banned. There is a technique that I use to help mitigate this using bonus bets, which I have discussed below. 

How much do I need to start…

Ideally you should have around $2000 before you start. This is to ensure you have sufficient funds across key bookies to take full advantage of the promos, as well as funds in your bank (that can be used for gambling…ensure this has been budgeted for) that can top up accounts throughout a betting period (usually over the weekend). 

Why it sucks to live in NSW or SA…

Due to the continued crack down by the NSW and SA governments, residents of these two states are not always eligible for promos and therefore always check the terms and conditions of each promo! This means the opportunities for risk free/value betting are not as high the residents of other states, but there are still plenty available. Additionally, you will find that bookies such as TAB and Luxbet have NSW only promos which I think they have done to take advantage of a legislative loop hole. 

How do I start…

Many bookies offer account creation offers (for example. deposit up to $200 and it will be matched with a $200 bonus bet). As noted above the legislative changes in certain states, notably NSW and SA also affect such promotions. However while bookies cannot offer you a bonus bet as an incentive to join up, there is no laws preventing them from offering you a ‘good will’ bonus bet once you have joined.  Not all bookies will offer this but at least 50% will.

To do this you need to:

  1. Sign up to a bookie but do not deposit anything.
  2. Contact the bookie (webchat is easiest) and tell then you just joined and would like to deposit some money, but ask if they will provide a goodwill bonus in good faith matching the deposit. If possible max out the bonus bet offered.

These account creation promotions are great in order to build your betting funds.

Using bonus bets (60% rule)

As a general rule of thumb the real money value of a bonus bet is about 60% (i.e. a $50 bonus bet is equivalent to $30 real money). This is achieved through risk free better where we essentially  bet on both teams to win, noting that the bookie (except 365) keeps the bonus bet stake. General rule of thumb is to find underdogs paying 3.0 or more, and favourites paying 1.30 or more.

Example

You have won a $100 bonus bet with Luxbet.

You put the $100 on the Dallas Mavericks (NBA) paying 3.0. Essentially these odds are 2.0, as luxbet will keep the $100 stake (essentially removing 1.0 from the odds) – returning $200 (after the $100 stake is removed).

You then bet on the Chicago Bulls at 1.4. Essentially this bet needs to return $200. This can be one bet or multiple bets across multiple bookies as long as the final return is $200. You will need to outlay total of 142.

So, with both bets returning $200, and an outlay of 142 (real cash), your profit is $58 regardless of who wins.

Note: its ideal if the favourite wins as there is no turn over requirements as you used your money.

As I mentioned earlier bonus bets can be used as a promo-ban mitigation tool. The reason for this is that when you place a bet at bookie A with the bonus bet, you will be betting on the other team to win with real money at bookie B. As long as this match does not have an associated promotion, then bookie B will believe you are placing regular 100% risk sports bets with them (not just promotional bets). 

Risk…

There is one key risk to consider particularly with large bonus bets obtained during account creation. In the unlikely event that the underdog that you placed the bonus bet on wins, you will have a significant amount of bets to turn over.

While I noted above that bonus bets from promotional bets have turn over requirements (generally one bet at odds of 1.50 or more), account creation bonus bets have differing turn over requirements. For example some bookies will make you turn over the original deposit and the winnings from the bonus bet at 2 or 3 times. 

This can be pretty problematic if you use a $500 bonus bet to place a bet and it wins at 3.0. As you would have bet against this $500 bonus bet to secure a $300 real money return, it would mean the bookie account that you bet your real cash with is now considerably lower in funds. While the bookie that you bet the bonus bet with is now heavy in funds (i.e.$1000) that cannot be withdrawn until you turn over $3000 in bets. If possible, you should try and split large bonus bets over numerous underdogs to reduce the impact of this issue. 

If this risk does eventuate, rather than turn over hundreds/thousands of dollars at that bookie, I continue to place bets against this bookie aiming for that bookie to lose. In other words you want that bookie to lose, so that the other bookie’s funds increase and therefore there is less to turn over. Note: Each time you place a bet you will be losing some money due to bookie commission and will therefore be eating into the original $300 profit. 

This is also a key reason to ensure you have plenty of funds available in the bank or across other bookies to manage this issue. 

This all sounds great but i’d like further help…

Over the coming weeks, particularly with the start of the NRL and AFL, I will be posting information on the available promos and examples of how to use them.

In addition there is a service I used to subscribe to called DailyProfit . I strongly recommend this service for those starting out. For $47 a month DailyProfit will provide you with the risk free and value bets, all you have to do is place the bets.

In future blog posts I will also cover how you can apply value betting to horse racing, which is also a very profitable technique but a bit more complex than the techniques discussed above. Note: DailyProfit also covers such bets. 

Key bookies to join…

The bookies provided below are the key bookies you should consider joining. There are others but these will be sufficient when first starting out.

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